Analysis Commodities
Sugar quotations start 2025 lower than previous year
The sugar quotations on the ICE Exchange of New York and London were under pressure in 2024, apart from a few notable rebounds. The quotations ended the year lower than in 2023. A clearer downward trend has been noticeable for several months now.
2025 started with a small recovery, which then corrected downwards again. This brought the quotation on the ICE Exchange of London to $501.60 per ton on January 9. New York closed at $421.08 per ton.
Brazil
According to the latest data from the Brazilian Unica, sugar production in the first two weeks of December was 348,000 tons in the central-southern production region. This production does not come close to that of the same period last year, which was 942,000 tons. It is now 63.1% lower in the same period.
Thus, sugar production in the region since the start of the season (last year April 1) is 5.1% lower than the previous season. So far, production amounts to 39.711 million tons of sugar.
Sugar cane processing was also significantly lower in the first two weeks of December; 54.3% lower than last year. Sugar cane processing since the start of the season is at 611.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.3%.
Sugar cane processing has been lower than last year for several biweekly periods in a row. Analysts also find it noteworthy that the number of sugar mills in operation in the first half of December was significantly lower than last year during the same period.
Ukraine
In 2024, Ukrainian sugar producers exported a record amount of sugar, an amount of 746,300 tons of sugar with an export value of $419 million, according to the Ukrainian organization Ukrsugar. 40% of this went to a European country. The majority was sold elsewhere, mainly in the Middle East, North Africa, and North Macedonia.
World Food Organization
In December, the sugar price index of the World Food Organization dropped to 120 points. This is a monthly decrease of 6.4 points and an annual decrease of 14.2 points (10.6%). The FAO attributes this to a higher-than-expected sugar production in Brazil in the second half of November and a weaker Brazilian real against the US dollar. The improved outlook for the next Brazilian season and the current Indian and Thai seasons are also said to have pushed down global sugar prices. Overall, according to the FAO, the pressure on sugar prices in 2024 is due to Brazil's record-high exports and a positive outlook for the supply for the 2024/25 season.
Alex Jurvillier
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