News Potatoes
High hopes, mixed results: the struggles of Poland’s potato sector Struggles to Meet Expectations
Poland, long a cornerstone of European potato production, is navigating a complex landscape in its processing sector. While recent harvests have shown resilience, quality inconsistencies and evolving market dynamics are prompting processors to adapt through strategic investments and sustainability initiatives.
In 2024, Poland's potato harvest reached approximately 6.35 million tons, cultivated over an estimated 200,000 hectares. This marked an increase from the previous year's 5.85 million tons on 195,000 hectares. The expansion was largely driven by favourable potato prices in 2023, and processors needing more contract volume, which incentivized farmers to allocate more land to potato cultivation.
However, last season was not without its challenges. Adverse weather conditions, including heatwaves and irregular rainfall, compromised crop quality. Approximately 25% of the harvest was deemed unsuitable for commercial use due to issues like disease and deformation. Consequently, wholesale prices in December 2024 dropped to about PLN 141 per 100 kg (approximately €32), reflecting an 18% decrease from the previous year.
Navigating supply constraints
The processing industry, encompassing starch production, crisps and frozen fries products, has been directly impacted by these fluctuations. A combination of reduced domestic yields and lower EU-wide production has strained raw material availability. Processors are operating at approximately 70% capacity, with limited surplus to accommodate new customers.
After nearly two decades of an ever-decreasing potato area, this trend halted in 2019. The area increased, thanks to a fierce demand and high prices, which prompted growers to plant more potatoes. However, extreme weather events, the Covid pandemic and favourable cereal and oil seed rape prices all had an impact on planting prospects. This meant that the area once again declined, reaching an all-time low of 188,400 hectares in 2023. Mainly thanks to an increased demand from frozen fry producers this has slowly increased since then.
Alternatives
It’s especially smallholder farmers are increasingly shifting to other crops, such as cereals and other vegetables. Rising production costs and limited incentives for potato farming lies beneath this move. This trend underscores the need for the processing sector to adapt to a changing agricultural landscape. Poland also has a group of large-scale growers that have rapidly professionalised in the last two decades. This movement was traditionally fed from German and Dutch growers, that started establishing themselves after the country opened its borders to the West. Since then, Polish colleagues have copied, and in some cases surpassed, the foreign farmers.
A series of meagre harvests and attractive alternatives even meant that these professional growers decided to cut back on acreage, or in some cases take a growing break altogether. When rape, maize and wheat prices dropped back to more normal levels, potatoes suddenly found themselves in the attractive corner again.
Balancing expansion and quality
Looking ahead, the Polish Potato Association anticipates an increase in cultivation area to 210,000 hectares in 2025 (+5%), with potential yields reaching 6.7 million tons if the five-year average yield is maintained. Industrial use of potatoes is expected to rise by about 6%, indicating a growing demand for processed products. Some care must be taken with this estimate, as it was calculated before the European market collapsed and before processors cut back on contract volumes.
The sector must contend with ongoing challenges, including climate variability and the need for high-quality seed potatoes. Processors and farmers alike will need to continue investing in sustainable practices and technological innovations to ensure the industry's long-term viability. The processing sector's ability to adapt to changing conditions will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge.
Prospects did not materialise
What France is currently for the processing industry was the case for Poland in the late 90s and early 00s. By many it was seen as the country when it came to potato growing. The area grown fell considerably, but this was mainly due to smallholders cutting back strongly on the acres. Potatoes that were most often used for animal feed and vodka production. Professional growing was upcoming, with modern, high-yielding varieties. A combination of previously described factors caused the situation not to develop as most insiders had thought. Poland’s climate can be difficult, with both fierce cold, drought and heavy rainfall all in a season, farmers often change their mind when it comes to hectares planted and they were not competitive compared to Western European countries, which lie much closer to deep sea harbours and are well set-up for worldwide export.
Polish frozen fries exports were impacted late last year, but still performed better than they did in the three years previous. In December, 30,324 tonnes were exported, compared to 25,395 tonnes in the year before. Nearly a 20% increase. In August the export level reached an all-time record of 37,538 tonnes. January was also a good month for Polish exporters, but the demand waned from February onwards.
Volatile future
Potato processors in Poland have increased their capacity during recent years, similar to factories elsewhere in Europe. After Russia invaded Ukraine the country lost an important customer for potato products, but other destinations have picked up the baton, judging by the export figures. Fellow European countries are the biggest buyers of Polish fries and other frozen potato products. A strongly decreased ware potato sector contributes to the surgency of the processing potato acreage. Starch potato production also took a big blow, although the Polish government is helping this branch by means of financial injections. The Polish potato sector thus remains volatile and taking its own course, rather than following the line of the EU-4.
Niels van der Boom
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