Will the potato market for harvest year 2024 follow a similar pattern as for harvest year 2023? That is a question that requires further clarification. Let's refresh our memory.
Last season (2022/23), so harvest year 2022, fries potatoes were traded at €60 per 100 kilos (Belgapom week 26 2023 noted €60). Subsequently, the market collapsed to even average below the €10 level (PCA/Fiwap quotation for the entire month of October 2023). The ultimately favorable, late-growing season heavily dampened the mood. The harvest problems in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the consequent disappearance of potatoes from the intended stock led to a strong price recovery of €20 for Belgapom around week 47, €25 in week 3 of the new year, €35 in week 17, and even €60 at the end of the season.
The current season (2024/25) started again with many uncertainties. Spring was extreme, the mood was more than firm, also due to the settlement at a very high price level of the old harvest potatoes. Now that the dust has settled and ultimately most of the acreage in the EU-4 countries has been planted, the mood seems to be changing. In that sense, the pattern of the previous season seems observable, with the somewhat predictable 'mantra' of the processors constantly being heard: 'We are not in the market'.
The predictability of the market is already evident on Friday, July 19, in the Belgapom quotation, which noted €30 for new potatoes, with the remark 'quiet', indirectly implying that the quotation will be lower in the coming weeks. Insiders indicate that €25 will be the next stop, and it is a challenge to sell potatoes outside the fixed agreements.
The burning question
Then the burning question is whether the market can drop much further, as was the case last season. So far, there seems to be no sign of that. Firstly, a significant part of the already considerably delayed growing season still needs to be completed, and a bit of persistent summer weather will be a major blow to many potato crops in the EU-4 countries. Secondly, it is in the interest of none of the parties that the effort and risks of potato cultivation yield too little. Within a little over half a year, there will be talk again about the cultivation of harvest year 2025, and given the demand for raw materials, growers must remain motivated.