The significant cut in potato area by American processors clearly has an impact on potato production in the United States this year. The growing season has been going well so far. There are no record yields, but it is not bad either.
Insiders estimate this year's harvest at 19.37 million tons. That is more than 600,000 tons less than last year's harvest, a decrease of 3%. Due to last year's very large harvest, the decline is significant. Compared to the multi-year average, this year's harvest is 2% above the five-year average.
The decline in potato production is mainly due to a decrease in acreage, which is 9,300 hectares less than in 2023, bringing the total to 379,300 hectares.
Average Maintained
The average yield is estimated to be 5 hundredweight per acre lower than the average. This translates to 560 kilograms per hectare, which is 51 tons per hectare. American potato crops have had a good growing season so far, although a lot can still happen in the last 2.5 months.
In almost all states, potatoes were planted slightly earlier than usual, resulting in an earlier start to the harvest. In major potato states like Idaho and Washington, farmers are currently starting the first harvesting activities. Factories have continued processing the old harvest for a long time. Sometimes, they are still working with old potatoes until early September. If the growing conditions remain favorable, a half-ton less can quickly turn into more.
Idaho Remains Stable
Looking at absolute tons, Washington stands out, with an estimated production decrease of 320,000 tons. This is a 7% decrease from the previous harvest year. North Dakota's potato production is expected to decrease by 106,000 tons (9%) and Wisconsin by 88,000 tons (7%). In Idaho, the most important state by far with an expected production of 6.54 million tons, the yield remains virtually unchanged.
In Idaho, the acreage has decreased this season, but favorable growing conditions have resulted in this effect hardly being reflected in the yield figures. Planting was slightly earlier than usual on average, and frequent irrigation has minimized the impact of heatwaves on the crops. However, regional differences are noticeable. Late frost has also caused damage in some areas, but it cannot be considered a disaster.
Heatwave
In Washington, the second-largest state with 4.2 million tons, the acreage has decreased significantly by 4,000 hectares. The story for this state is similar to Idaho. Early planting followed by high daytime temperatures. Hopefully, there will be some change by mid-August, but it has already prevented top yields from being achieved.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will provide the first official estimate of the potato harvest in November. It is clear that the U.S. is heading towards a reasonably good harvest this year, which is more in line with the processing capacity compared to last season. Persistent summer heat or rain during the harvest could still impact the current figures. An early frost could also have an impact.
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