After a brief revival, the futures markets for wheat and maize are once again in the red today, Monday, August 19. A correction in the yields of European wheat, Russia, and Ukraine could only briefly please the market. What prevails is the difficult export situation.
The leading market agency SovEcon has revised its expectations for the Russian wheat harvest downwards by 1.8 million tons to 82.9 million tons. This is due to new figures from the statistics agency Rosstat. They have corrected the yields in various regions. It also turns out that the area of summer wheat in Siberia has not grown as previously thought (from 9.8 to 10.6 million hectares). Companies there have mainly opted for more rapeseed.
Ukrainian harvest completed
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture also came up with figures. The wheat harvest there has been completed and an estimated 21.7 million tons are stored in the silos and barns. That is 100,000 tons more than last year's harvest. A small attack on the export port of Odessa did not deter traders.
On Friday, August 16, the wheat contract on the Matif closed at €205.25. This showed a slight revival after a week of price corrections. On Monday, the price has to give in again and is quoted at €204.25 in the afternoon.
Maize prices
The CBoT showed a similar movement, with a slightly higher price on Friday and another decline on Monday. Around 3 o'clock in the afternoon, the September contract is quoted at $5.24 per bushel, compared to $5.30 on Friday. The maize contract, however, shows green figures with a price of $3.75¾ per bushel. That is 12.5 cents more than the Friday closing price. In Paris, maize is quoted lower, at €194.25 per ton, compared to €195.50 on Friday afternoon.
In Europe, it remains warm and dry for now. This does not yet cause major problems for the development of maize fields. It does, however, speed up the wheat harvest. In France, farmers are working on the last 5%. According to government figures, maize is rated as good to excellent for 76%, compared to 84% last year.
The German Raiffeisen Verband (DRV) revised its wheat yields to 18.76 million tons, which is 13% less than last year. The total grain production of 39.11 million tons is 8% less and the smallest in seven years.
Staff shortage
In the United States, most of the wheat has been harvested. On the other side of the border, in Canada, the combines are running at full capacity. More than half of the winter wheat has been harvested there. Further north, significant rainfall occurred, which is particularly positive for the late-sown summer wheat. News that the national Canadian railways are reducing their services due to a staff shortage was not well received in the grain market in the country. Americans see it as an opportunity to export more wheat.
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