Analysis Grains
Harvest is smaller, but Ukraine's export is doing well
For a change, no harvest figures from Europe but from Russia and Ukraine. There too, the yield turns out to be lower than previously expected. In the US, grain growers have made a considerable effort and pushed a significant area of summer wheat and barley through the combines. The consequences of the hot days last week in the cornbelt seem to be limited, as can be deduced from the Crop Progress report of the USDA.
The September contract on the Matif lost €2.25 yesterday, ending at €204 per ton. The December contract, on the other hand, recorded a gain of €2.25 to €219.25 per ton. On the CBoT, the September wheat contract rose by 3.6% to $5.52 per bushel on the first trading day after a long weekend. Corn increased by 2.2% to $3.86½ per bushel. Soybeans lag slightly behind the grains but still rose by 1.5% and closed at $9.97 per bushel.
After the series of harvest figures from the EU last week, it was Russia and Ukraine's turn yesterday. SovEcon lowered the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest from 83.3 million tons to 82.5 million tons. In the central part of Russia and the Volga region, yields are lower than expected according to the market bureau. In the Urals and Siberia - where the combines are still running - the initial yield figures confirm the relatively good condition of the wheat according to SovEcon.
Ukraine has harvested 28.7 million tons of grain so far, as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. This time last year, the figure was 29.2 million tons. This season, 21.8 million tons of wheat have been harvested compared to 22.1 million tons last year. The barley harvest is also lower. This season, 5.5 million tons have been threshed, which is 300,000 less than last season. The corn harvest has started in the first regions, so no figures are available yet.
Ukrainian exports are doing well
Ukraine has no complaints about exports. Since the start of the season, Ukraine has exported 7 million tons of grain according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. That was 4.3 million tons during the same period last season. The export figures include 3.6 million tons of wheat, 89% more than last season. Barley exports have more than doubled to 1.1 million tons. Corn exports are 13.5% ahead of last season and amount to 2.3 million tons.
The European Union is struggling with exports. Until September 1, the EU exported 4.38 million tons of wheat. Last season, it was 5.66 million tons during this period. The EU's exports are therefore 22.6% behind last season.
Everything is moving
A day later than usual due to the American Labor Day, the USDA released the Crop Progress report yesterday. The USDA made no major adjustments to the corn condition. 65% of the area is rated good or excellent, the same as last week. Soybeans have slightly declined with 65% rated good or excellent compared to 67% last week. The heatwave that affected a large part of the cornbelt had limited effect, as can be cautiously deduced from the USDA figures.
A significant progress was made by American farmers last week with the harvest of summer wheat and barley. 70% of the summer wheat has been threshed compared to 51% last week. The harvest progress is now equal to the five-year average. Three-quarters of the barley area has been harvested compared to 47% last week. This time last year, 75% had also been harvested. The five-year average is slightly higher at 76%.
Although the combines are still running, the US has also started sowing winter wheat. 2% of the planned area is already in the ground according to the USDA. Farmers in Washington are the most advanced with 22% sown. In that state, however, 14% of the summer wheat and 13% of the summer barley still need to be threshed.
