A large spread in planting date of potatoes, huge differences in rainfall, and from fields that are fresh green to completely worn out. Try to distill a decent yield estimate for the EU-4 from test digging, growth curves, satellite data, and what have you. Estimating the yield is difficult, making it extremely difficult to predict which direction the market will take and how the season will unfold.
On average, various test diggings show that the average hectare yield in the Netherlands and Belgium (especially Wallonia) is equal to that of the 2018 and 2023 harvest years. However, in Germany, the state of the crops and thus the potato harvest would be better. The further 'story' is the bulking. That is the big unknown factor. Especially the late planted fields still have potential to grow, the weather pattern in the coming weeks will of course determine this. The nerves of growers must be strong with the harvest of last year still fresh in memory. How long do you dare to wait before going into the field with the harvester?
It is visible that a variety like Innovator is coming to an end and little bulking can be expected from it. A moderate hectare yield, low size and high underwater weight, is the general picture. This is also reflected in the price development of this variety. For example, the German Reka notes this week (36) for Innovator €19. That is a significant price difference (35%) with the prices in Belgium, which still do not exceed €12.50 per 100 kilos.
Chess
The current day market is characterized by the positional play of the various processors. The relatively late start of some processors with early potatoes is still hindering the market. Until a week ago, there were factories still processing 'old' potatoes. A quite remarkable fact, especially when you consider that in June and also July €60 was paid for fry potatoes and apparently today the early ones are not selling or difficult to sell for €12.50.
The futures market of the April 2025 contract shows a steady picture around €30. There is buying interest around €29.50, however, the supply is limited due to the latent sentiment in the physical market. Most growers know that the day market is very weak and that there is supply hanging above the market of all kinds of potatoes. However, if you want to buy freely tradeable Innovators dry from the barn for spring delivery, there is no supply below €30. '€32 comes first,' as an insider remarked. Apparently, there is confidence in a favorable market development for the coming months, driven by the expectation of the final amount of kilos to be harvested. If that disappoints, especially if a lot has been contracted, there is little to sell.
