More and more countries are taking a dominant position in the global French fries market. The EU and North America have divided the largest part of the pie, but players like China and India are developing rapidly. This creates a crowded market. Interestingly, the price level manages to hold steady.
It is not easy to provide a clear picture of the export flows for fries around the world. Not all countries are timely in providing customs data, including the Netherlands and Belgium. In the first six months of this year, the ten largest exporting countries collectively shipped 2.58 million tons of final product. That is 2% more than in the previous year, setting a new record.
North America
In reality, this figure is likely slightly higher, as not all EU countries have provided data on trade within European borders. The EU-4 and Poland have sold slightly more fries. They are facing competition mainly from North America. With plenty of potatoes, Americans and Canadians have been able to regain a significant amount of trade.
Canada stands out the most. In the first six months of this year, it exported 742,400 tons of frozen potato products. That is 7.5% more than the previous year. The US, in the same period, reached 456,300 tons. A rise of just over one percent. Not all EU countries have provided data, making it a bit of a guessing game how these figures will turn out. It is likely a slight decrease.
Canadian export
The reason Canada (as an individual country) is by far at the top of the ranking is largely due to exporting a huge amount of fries to neighboring US. In Q2, 88% of all fries crossed the national border. Mexico, Japan, Panama, and China complete the top five. Conversely, the US exported 'only' 12,600 tons of fries to Canada. This accounts for 5.5% of the total. Japan and Mexico are traditionally the largest buyers of American fries.
The total export value of the ten largest countries (where the EU is considered as one) increased by 5% in the first half of this year to €3.46 billion. That is an all-time record. There is a cautious stabilization in the prices paid for fries, although it has not slowed down much. This is partly due to the influences from China, India, and Turkey, which have exported significantly more fries this year.
Fries price increased by 88%
From the EU, it is visible that the value is decreasing, although this is again not entirely quantifiable due to insufficient data. The price of a ton of frozen fries remained stable. Compared to the second half of last year, it increased by a few euros, to €1,272 per ton, but looking at the first half of 2023, it is seven euros less. Compare that to a price of 'only' €675 three years ago. That is a value increase of 88%.
Looking at the global stage, the EU continues to offer relatively inexpensive products. The average of the ten countries is €1,340 per ton. Especially New Zealand, Brazil, and India are price fighters in the world market. The latter saw its export value increase by 45% in the first half of the year. From China, the revenue increased by a fifth. Turkey performed the best with a 50% increase. This is also reflected in the volumes.
Backdoor
These are relatively modest amounts: 30,000 tons for Turkey, most of which are exported to Russia. Since the war with Ukraine, this country has been considered a 'backdoor' for Europe to export fries to Russia. In the first half of the year, Turkey delivered almost 17,000 tons of fries to the country. That is 123% more than the 7,603 tons exported in the first six months of last year. Interestingly, China is an important supplier of fries to Turkey. 5,200 tons in the first half of this year. The US is the largest buyer with 6,300 tons.
Fries exporters have managed to keep the volume and market value high. Signs that high inflation figures are causing trouble in the potato product market are not yet visible in the first six months. However, this is what manufacturers are prepared for. The EU can be seen as a loser on the world stage. Yet the decline in volume and euros remains relatively small. The lack of recent data also clouds this picture.
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