Analysis Potatoes
Germany expects largest harvest in 20 years
The German Ministry of Agriculture BMEL expects the largest potato harvest in the country since 2004. The German potato crops have had a relatively good growing season. The acreage has also increased by over 9% this season. However, significant differences between crops and regions are noticeable.
At the end of September, the German Ministry of Agriculture BMEL published figures for the 2024 potato harvest by state. According to their forecast, they expect 12.67 million tons of potatoes to be harvested. This is 1.07 million tons more than last year, an increase of 9.22%. It is 14.4% more than the five-year average of just over 11 million tons.
24,600 hectares added
The potato acreage in our neighboring country has increased by 24,600 hectares this year, according to government figures, reaching 289,300 hectares. The area of ware potatoes saw the largest increase, reaching 217,900 hectares. The seed potato area increased to 18,300 hectares, while the starch potato cultivation decreased to 53,100 hectares. This mix is very different from that of 2004. Back then, the starch potato area was much larger. There were also many table potatoes grown, but it was more about table potatoes and less about fries potatoes.
Lower Saxony leads the way with 6.34 million tons of harvest. This is not surprising as it has by far the largest potato state with almost 140,000 hectares. North Rhine-Westphalia follows in second place with almost 46,000 hectares (2.25 million tons), and Bavaria is in third place with 36,000 hectares (1.52 million tons). The area has also shrunk here by 2,800 hectares. A wet autumn and spring are to blame. Fields were also destroyed by floods. In the other states, the area has remained fairly stable, with no significant increase in potato harvest. An exception is Saxony, where the expected volume is decreasing from 210,000 to 183,000 tons.
Over 50% from Lower Saxony
The northwest also experienced a wet harvest last autumn. This spring was not always dry, but compared to other countries in the EU-4, the conditions were slightly more favorable. The likelihood of Lower Saxony achieving its largest harvest ever is plausible. More than half of all potatoes grown in Germany come from there. In North Rhine-Westphalia, the impact of a late planting moment is noticeable. The hectare yields are slightly lower than they could have been in theory.
The figures do not take into account the quality of the crops. Due to weather extremes and sometimes late planting dates, the quality varies greatly. Especially the late fields are still largely green and are not always up to size and their specific gravity. At the same time, there are issues with phytophthora, damage from nematodes, green tubers, and fine grading or low specific gravities. Due to the shortage of seed potatoes, more dual-purpose varieties and B-grade varieties for fry potato growers have been planted. However, the market for table and export potatoes is considered good. The price levels are significantly higher than for regular processing potatoes.
Potato Supply
German french fry producers, who are also clustered in the northwest, likely do not have to worry about potato supply this season. That has been different in recent years. Higher contract and market prices have mainly shifted growers from starch potatoes to processing potatoes.
The potato harvesting is progressing smoothly in large parts of Germany. In the drier east, it is largely completed. In Bavaria, rain is causing problems, while precipitation in the west and northwest is welcome. The large harvest is putting pressure on the off-season. There are also batches with quality issues that must be marketed immediately. Late-planted crops cannot yet be stored because they are simply still too green and do not meet the quality standards. Growers have to gamble between storing on time or waiting for the kilos and specific under water weight.
Record Harvest in France
The French Ministry of Agriculture Agreste has also adjusted their potato figures. They now expect 178,000 hectares of ware potatoes, which is 24,000 hectares more than last year. They anticipate a yield of 43 tons per hectare, which is almost the same as last year. This would result in a harvest of 7.65 million tons of potatoes, 850,000 tons more than last year. It is also the largest table potato harvest ever in the country. In France, it is also evident that starch potato cultivation has significantly decreased - by 6,000 hectares - in favor of processing potatoes. This has almost halved the harvest of this type of potato.
