Now that the potato harvest is in full swing in North America, the size of the harvest is becoming clearer. Arable farmers are having a good year, but a record harvest like in 2023 is not being achieved. This also applies to potato growers in Canada.
Insiders estimate that potato growers in the United States will harvest 19.15 million tons of potatoes this year. This is 4.1% less than last year's harvest, or 813,000 tons, and almost equal to the five-year average. This summer, the estimate was 19.37 million tons. Potato production is declining the most in the states of Idaho, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. In Oregon, production is estimated to increase.
Smooth harvest
The potato harvest is at an advanced stage in most states. The harvesting conditions have been generally very good, although sometimes a bit too warm. It is estimated that the remaining potatoes will be harvested in the next ten days.
In Idaho, potato production is decreasing to 6.32 million tons. This is a decrease of almost 3% compared to last year. Washington is expected to produce 4.23 million tons, which is almost 10% less. This summer, insiders expected a decrease of about 7%. High temperatures have resulted in lower regrowth, which also applies to the growing areas in Idaho. The acreage in both states has shrunk this year after factories struggled with a record harvest in 2023.
Average yield
Due to the warm weather, yield differences are sometimes significant regionally. On average, the yield is estimated at 50.65 tons per hectare, slightly lower (660 kilos) than last year and the twenty-year average.
Focusing on processing potatoes, the production decline here is slightly larger. Especially because the acreage was significantly reduced in the growing areas this spring. This is particularly true for the large states. In other areas, the harvests are considered average and are in line with what factories demand. It remains to be seen which direction it will take next year. In Idaho, growers are used to contract negotiations starting as early as October, but factories indicate that they will only make an offer next month.
Heat and rainfall alternate
Across the border in Canada, the harvesting machines are also running. It is relatively warm here too. On Prince Edward Island, the harvest was only 10% completed by the end of September. In the province of Manitoba, 160 millimeters of rainfall caused problems last month, resulting in the loss of several potato fields. The rainfall also halted harvesting activities. In other parts of the province, it was too warm to harvest, so irrigation was necessary.
Canada is currently expected to produce 5.69 million tons of potatoes. This is about 50,000 tons less than estimated this summer. This yield is 150,000 tons below last year's, a decrease of 2.6%. Throughout the growing season, it remained dry and warm in the prairie provinces while abundant rain fell on the east coast. The acreage is slightly larger than last year's harvest. The hectare yield is slightly below 2023, similar to the US.
Alberta, the largest province for potatoes, expects to harvest 1.3 million tons of potatoes, which is 10% less than last year. For Manitoba, it is 1.2 million tons (11% less), and Prince Edward Island is harvesting 1.17 million tons. Growing conditions on this island have been almost perfect. In the other provinces, heat has affected the yield, making it not exceptional but certainly not bad.
Balance
Looking at all of North America, the potato harvest is more in line with processors' needs. The extent of that need remains to be seen. For example, Lamb Weston announced the immediate closure of a factory (capable of processing 400,000 tons) in early October, and french fry sales are slow on the continent. This is mainly due to reduced domestic demand and increased supply from European competitors. If there is a greater demand for potatoes in the Canadian prairie provinces, they are available across the border in the US. Conversely, it is unlikely that more Canadian potatoes will go to America. Despite the reduced acreage, there are plenty of potatoes available.
© DCA Market Intelligence. Op deze marktinformatie berust auteursrecht. Het is niet toegestaan de inhoud te vermenigvuldigen, distribueren, verspreiden of tegen vergoeding beschikbaar te stellen aan derden, in welke vorm dan ook, zonder de uitdrukkelijke, schriftelijke, toestemming van DCA Market Intelligence.
