Analysis Grains
Soybean harvest in the US accelerates
The weather creates a certain stable undertone in the wheat market. While wheat growers in the US could use some rain, it is ideal harvesting weather for corn and soybean growers. Attacks on two grain ships near Ukraine left the market relatively unaffected.
The December contract for wheat on the Matif moved mainly sideways during the last trading session and ultimately closed €0.25 lower at €228.50 per ton. Wheat on the CBoT showed a modest increase. The December wheat contract on the Chicago exchange closed 0.5% higher at $5.92½ per bushel. Corn closed 0.3% higher at $4.26 per bushel. Soybeans, on the other hand, lost some ground in the last trading session and closed 0.4% lower at $10.34 per bushel.
Drought in the Black Sea region and parts of the American prairies creates a certain stable undertone in the wheat market. The Russian Minister of Agriculture seems to be preparing for a reduction in the Russian harvest forecast. He mentioned setbacks due to the weather and issues for agriculture in the regions where war is being fought.
The Ikar price for Russian Black Sea wheat has increased by $1 to $223 per ton. Russian grain exports decreased significantly last week, according to SovEcon data. Russia exported 870,000 tons last week compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week. Of the total grain export last week, 800,000 tons were wheat compared to 1.29 million tons the previous week.
Free passage
In Ukraine, grain exports are performing much better than last season. Up to October 7, 11.2 million tons of grain were exported compared to 7.2 million tons the previous year, according to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. More than half, namely 6.5 million tons, of the grain export is wheat. Furthermore, Ukraine has exported 3 million tons of corn and 1.4 million tons of barley.
A safe passage in the Black Sea is crucial for Ukrainian grain exports. This is not a given, as has been shown in recent days. Sunday and yesterday, grain ships were hit by Russian rockets, as announced by Ukrainian authorities. On Sunday, a bulk carrier sailing under the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis was hit by a Russian rocket. According to Ukrainian sources, the ship was loaded with 6,000 tons of corn; no one was injured in the attack. On Monday, a ship under the flag of Palau was hit. An Ukrainian crew member was killed, and five crew members were injured.
Good harvesting weather
In the US, the corn and soybean harvest is in full swing. Dry weather in a large part of the corn belt is aiding US farmers. Especially the soybean harvesting is progressing rapidly, as reported in this week's Crop Progress report. 47% of the soybean acreage has been harvested compared to 34% around this time in the five-year average. Last year at this time, 37% was harvested, and last week, 26% was harvested. The condition of soybeans has slightly deteriorated this week. 63% of the acreage is rated good or excellent compared to 64% last week. Corn in the US is 30% harvested compared to 27% in the five-year average and 31% last year at this time. The condition of corn remains unchanged, with 64% of the acreage rated good or excellent.
American farmers have seeded just over half of the planned winter wheat acreage. According to the USDA, 51% of the planned acreage is planted. This seeding rate is slightly behind the five-year average and last year when 52% was planted. A quarter of the winter wheat has emerged, which is in line with the average and last year.
