Analysis Grains
Corn Harvest in the US proceeding swiftly
Attempts by Russia to raise the wheat price on the world market have certainly not been an unqualified success. France has once again lowered the yield figures for wheat. Traders on the Paris exchange seemed indifferent. Slightly later than usual, the USDA released the Crop Progress report yesterday.
The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed €2.50 lower at €226.25 per bushel yesterday. Grains also closed in the red on the CBoT. Wheat fell by 1% to $5.79½ per bushel. The biggest decliner on the Chicago exchange was corn, which dropped 1.5% to $4.01¼ per bushel. Soybeans held up relatively well and ultimately closed 0.5% lower at $9.91 per bushel.
Russia continues to occupy the minds of the wheat market. The Kremlin made a clear attempt last week to boost the wheat price on the world market. We can tentatively conclude that this has not been entirely successful. There will be no strict export ban, and analysts doubt whether Russian exporters will keep ranks and not dive below the proposed minimum price of $250 per ton by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. The Russian Union of Grain Traders yesterday provided an indicative price for wheat delivered to the Black Sea for the first time. For wheat with 12.5% protein for direct delivery, they set $240 per ton, for delivery in November $245, and in December $250 per ton. By regularly providing their own indicative prices, Russia hopes to have more influence on price formation.
Lower harvest estimate
In the EU, wheat exports are 29% behind last season. According to the statistics of the European Commission, 6.64 million tons of wheat have been exported until October 13. The French Ministry of Agriculture has revised downward the yield figures for the 2024 harvest. The wheat harvest is now estimated at 25.4 million tons, down from 25.8 million tons last month. This year's harvest is thus 27.6% lower than last year. The barley harvest has been reduced by 200,000 to 9.8 million tons. This is a fifth less than last season's harvest. The estimate for corn has been slightly increased to 14.5 million tons. Due to the wet weather during the harvest, further setbacks in corn are not excluded.
Favorable threshing weather
A day later than usual due to Columbus Day, the USDA released the weekly Crop Progress report yesterday. The dry weather in large parts of the corn belt is favorable for harvesting activities. This is clearly reflected in the report. 47% of the corn acreage has been threshed. Last week, the figure was at 30%. Compared to both last season and the five-year average, American corn farmers have built up a significant lead. At this time last season, 42% had been harvested, and the five-year average stands at 39%. In soybeans, two-thirds of the acreage has been harvested, compared to 57% last season and 51% in the five-year average.
The sowing of winter wheat is proceeding at a slightly slower pace than the harvesting of corn and soybeans. 64% of the planned winter wheat area has been sown. This time last year it was 65%, and the five-year average stands at 66%. The emergence of winter wheat is also slightly behind. 35% has emerged. Last year it was 36%, and 38% in the five-year average.
