Analysis Sugar
The pressure on sugar prices continues
The pressure on sugar prices continues. Prices on the ICE exchange in New York and London continue to decline.
Sugar prices fell yesterday to $464.51 per ton in New York, while London dropped to $547.70 per ton. The current pressure on sugar prices contrasts with the news from Brazil's Unica. The main production region produced 59.2% less sugar in the first half of November (898,000 tons). This brings the sugar production since the start of the season to 38.274 million tons. That is 3% lower than the same period last year. Naturally, sugar cane processing was also lower in the first half of November (-52.8%), with processing since the start of the season 2.2% lower compared to the same period last year.
USDA expects more sugar production, but declining ending stocks
On the other hand, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in the latest World Markets and Trade report of November 21 on more sugar in market year 2024/25. Global production is expected to increase to 186.619 million tons according to the November forecast. Production has been revised upwards compared to the earlier May forecast (186.024 million tons of sugar). World production for market year 2023/24 stands at 183.827 million tons.
Consumption expectations are also rising: the November forecast for 2024/25 is 179.631 million tons of sugar, higher compared to market year 2023/24 (177.567 million tons).
The figures on global stocks are interesting. In May, an amount of 38.339 million tons was expected. In November, the expectation has significantly increased to an ending stock of 45.427 million tons. However, the ending stock for market year 2023/24 was 48.372 million tons. The expectation is therefore that global sugar stocks will decrease in market year 2024/25.
ISO expects sugar deficit
The International Sugar Organization earlier forecasted a global sugar deficit for 2024/25 in the quarterly forecast of November. This deficit was set at 2.513 million tons of sugar. This deficit would have decreased compared to the earlier forecast (3.58 million tons in August). The ISO assumes a world production of 179.069 million tons and a consumption of 181.582 million tons.
Closer to home, news concerns sugar beets. Cosun reports that about 2.8 million tons of beets still need to be processed, of which 2 million tons still need to be harvested, or 30% of the area. The yield expectation remains the same, at 12.4 tons of sugar per hectare.
Alex Jurvillier
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