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Continuity for the foodsector under Keir Starmer

July 12, 2024 - Matthijs Bremer

The new left-wing government in the United Kingdom mainly offers continuity to the agri-food sector. However, some things will change. For example, the new Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to re-endorse the veterinary guidelines of the EU. Labour talks a lot about its own agricultural sector, although its migration policy has been disappointing for the agri-food sector. Additionally, the new Prime Minister aims to focus on advertising regulations but is moving away from higher taxes on food.

At first glance, despite the shift to the left, there is mainly continuity for the food sector. There is no stronger focus on the European Union to be expected. Like the Conservative Party, the social democrats see a lot of potential in more international trade. Therefore, under Starmer, more of the same can be expected in terms of trade relations. The United Kingdom will mainly focus on new trade agreements worldwide. Both for the purchase and sale of food, the United Kingdom seeks to connect with the global market. For now, the emphasis remains on countries that were part of the British Empire in the past. Labour aims to reach an agreement with India as soon as possible.

There is an exception to this stance. The social democrats have announced a plan to recommit to European veterinary protocols. This is intended to streamline the meat import process, avoiding issues at the border. This should not come as a surprise, as the United Kingdom is heavily dependent on the European Union for meat supply.

Mixed signal
Remarkably, Labour made support from British farmers a focal point in their campaign. The emphasis was on food security. Labour advocates for a self-sufficiency rate of at least 50%. However, Labour aims to achieve two goals at once by also making sustainability improvements. The focus is mainly on efficient land use.

However, the food sector faces a major challenge, particularly regarding addressing labor shortages. Like the European Union, the United Kingdom is struggling with a labor shortage. There is a difference, though. Since Brexit, the United Kingdom no longer has access to the shared European labor market, making it harder for the country to recruit foreign workers. Labor shortages are particularly felt in the fruit and meat sectors. Unfortunately, there is little good news for them.

As Labour also aims to reduce migration, the party is focusing on a visa system that links admission to skills in demand. The emphasis seems to be on attracting expats. For lower-paid personnel migration, the party advocates for stricter policies. The party does not tolerate violations of labor laws, and the era when specific sectors could rely on migration is over, according to the party. The government expects a lot from automation in the food sector.

Alternative regulatory strategy
The new government has committed to regulating the food market more in terms of health. Starmer announced that an existing law that prohibits advertising unhealthy food targeting children will be implemented. His predecessor intended to ban advertisements for sugary foods on TV and the internet between 6:30 pm and 9:00 pm, but the Conservative government postponed the measure twice. Initially until 2024 and later until October 1, 2025. The Conservative government stated that the postponement was to prioritize inflation control. Additionally, the government plans to ban the sale of energy drinks to children under sixteen. The ban applies to drinks containing 150 milligrams of caffeine per liter.

Labour, on the other hand, is against taxing unhealthy food. Given the high inflation in recent years, the new government opposes making food more expensive. This marks a departure from the path taken by the Conservative Party. During their term, the Tories introduced a sugar tax of 24 pence for beverages containing more than 8 grams of sugar per 100 milliliters. For beverages containing between 5 and 8 grams of sugar, a tax of 18 pence was implemented. It is unlikely that the tax will be extended to food products high in fat or sugar.

Matthijs Bremer

Matthijs Bremer is a market specialist in pork, beef, and poultry meat at DCA Market Intelligence. He also monitors the protein transition, keeping an eye on developments in cultured meat and meat substitutes.