Analysis Energy
Escalation in the Middle East drives up oil price
The tensions in the Middle East are rising. Israel wants to retaliate against Iran for air strikes, and there are fears that oil refineries will be targeted. The oil price takes a step up.
After Iran's retaliatory action on Monday evening (September 30) against Israel for attacks on the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, the oil price started to rise. Brent crude oil is currently trading at €75.82 per barrel, 5.6% higher than Monday (€71.77).
The tensions in the Middle East have escalated significantly. In April, there was already talk of war threats between Israel and Iran. However, it seemed that both countries wanted to send a signal without escalating the situation. Iran retaliated against an attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria with a missile strike that was largely intercepted due to extensive warning, after which Israel launched a small counterattack. Then relative calm returned.
Now tensions have escalated further. Two weeks ago, in Lebanon, the pagers and walkie-talkies of Hezbollah members exploded, attributed to Israel. Since then, there have been mutual shelling, hundreds of people died in air strikes in Lebanon, and on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an air strike. Iran wants to avenge that death, and on Monday, the country fired about 180 rockets at Israel. Yesterday, Israel sent ground troops to southern Lebanon.
Refineries targeted
Israel wants to retaliate against Iran for the air strikes. There are fears that Israel will carry out air strikes on Iran targeting oil refineries and nuclear facilities. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 by the Energy Institute, Iran produced 4.66 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for 4.8% of global oil production.
