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Analysis Pigs & Pork

Pig price takes a significant step down

October 31, 2024 - Matthijs Bremer

The prices at the pig market have dropped significantly in recent weeks. This applies to both the slaughter prices and the prices at the meat market. Although the Spanish market is at the forefront of the decline, it was Germany that initiated the price reduction in the Netherlands.

The DCA market price has taken a significant step downwards. Until week 43, the pig price was at €1.96 per kilo. However, in week 44, the price dropped by as much as 7 cents to €1.89.

The price pressure is currently mainly coming from Spain. In the Southern European country, pig prices seasonally decline significantly. When the tourist season is over, the local demand drops sharply. Normally, Spanish slaughterhouses can easily sell that extra meat, but at the moment the demand in Europe is low. Exporting to third countries is also not an option, as Asian countries opt for cheaper meat from Brazil and the United States. Therefore, Spain has only one option left: to lower prices and compete with the rest of Europe.

Although the price was mainly pushed down by Spain, the Dutch reduction was announced in a classic way by Germany. The German VEZG quotation dropped from €2 per kilo in week 43 to €1.92 per kilo. It was not entirely surprising that German slaughterhouses would go for a reduction. The German market has been looser than expected since the beginning of the summer, and since the school holidays are over, the difference from last year has only increased. By now, the German slaughter figure is 25,000 slaughters higher than last year.

Demand for pork limited

Meanwhile, the demand for pork in our neighboring country is structurally decreasing. This has also led to a subdued pork sales. As a result, the prices of pork parts have been in the negative in the last two weeks. In week 43, the decline was still limited, with the price decreasing by 0.22 cents. In week 44, the price dropped by 4.55 cents. This means a significant part of the increase after the summer vacation has been undone. Between week 35 and week 41, the price increased by 6.35 cents. Of that, 71.7% has evaporated in the last two weeks.

The influence of the upcoming holidays is becoming visible. Just like in the beef market, it can be seen that consumers are saving up for the holidays. The raw materials for processed meat products also remain unchanged. The prices of bacon, cheek, and liver remain the same. Additionally, it seems that the holidays are starting to have an effect on the market. Both the long loin and the chuck remained at the same price. It is remarkable, however, that another Christmas classic, the ham, takes a significant step down by 8 cents. Furthermore, the price of necks decreases significantly. The prices of necks with and without bone both decreased by 10 cents. Finally, the prices of shoulders also take a significant step back by 6.67 cents.

Matthijs Bremer

Matthijs Bremer is a market specialist in pork, beef, and poultry meat at DCA Market Intelligence. He also monitors the protein transition, keeping an eye on developments in cultured meat and meat substitutes.
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