Analysis Cattle & Beef
Chinese beef imports continue to grow in 2025
Despite the weak Chinese market, Chinese beef imports continue to grow. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the imports to continue to increase slightly in 2025.
The Chinese beef market has been in trouble throughout 2024. According to the USDA, slaughter prices in China are currently below the cost price. Therefore, China introduced measures in early June to slow down the price decline, such as national guidelines determining when dairy cattle can be slaughtered. However, China is cautious about hitting the brakes too hard. The country is afraid of an overreaction, so despite the low prices, China is not willing to reduce imports. Therefore, the USDA expects Chinese beef imports to continue to increase in 2025.
Compared to previous years, the growth in 2025 is expected to be limited, according to the USDA. Due to low demand in the country, there is clear competition with domestic production. Therefore, the Ministry of Agriculture expects imports to rise from 3.9 million to 3.95 tons of beef. This is slightly less than what the USDA previously predicted for Chinese beef imports in 2025.
Lower production
Additionally, the USDA expects domestic production to decrease from 7.8 million tons in 2024 to 7.78 million tons in 2025. Slaughter rates increased in the first half of 2024, but the USDA believes that this increase is temporary. The Chinese beef sector decided to slaughter more during this period because prices had significantly dropped since late 2023. The market expectation was for the price decline to continue for a long time, so many farmers tried to get the best possible price. As a result, there will be slightly less cattle available for slaughter in the coming year. However, the impact on the market is limited as there is currently a lot of meat in stock.
