Not only outside is it foggy, the potato market is also shrouded in mist. It is difficult to get a realistic view of the current potato prices. Take a look at the quotations in Belgium, Germany, and France, or in the Netherlands at the indicative price of the Goes and LNCN exchange, then there is little clarity.
Take for example the quotations in Belgium from Viaverda/Fiwap and Belgapom. It has been indicated for some time that the market tends to hold prices, and on Friday, November 8, Belgapom even described the sentiment as 'firm', but the quotation remains 'just' €12.50 per 100 kilos for Fontane and Challenger. That things are not 'just' is evident from the market information reported, among other sources, by the TransactionApp. Based on this input, a quotation for Fontane of at least €14 to €16 would better reflect the market.
No Dutch potato quotation
The fact that in the Netherlands it has not yet been possible to establish a decent potato quotation adds to the confusion. For example, the indicative price from the Goes/LNCN exchanges on Monday, November 5, came up with a price of up to €20 for field-fry potatoes. The lower end of the price range was not mentioned. Compiling and circulating a price in this way, knowing that in our surrounding countries the lower end of the quotations does not exceed €12.50, is a way of communicating market prices with little chance of success. Growers cannot do much with that.
REKA
In that sense, Germany currently has a better handle on things with the REKA quotation by providing quotations for different varieties, giving a clearer picture of what growers can expect from the Fontane variety (currently €13.50) to Innovator (currently up to €21). In that sense, the REKA quotation accurately reflects the situation of the potato market in the EU-4 countries. With the end of the field period approaching, supply is decreasing, while the demand for high-quality potatoes is clearly increasing.
For much less than €16, no Fontane (preferably storable) is available. Buyers from mainly Belgium and the south of the Netherlands are filling the 'gaps' (read: empty barns) with supply from, for example, France, Germany, and Northeast Netherlands. The supply of varieties like Innovator and Markies is minimal, especially when it comes to delivery still within this calendar year. The demand for, for example, Innovator delivery in the spring of 2025 varies per processor/trader in terms of positions. One is not in the market based on €29, while another pays €30 without any issue.
Expectation
As things stand now, the expectation is that the potato market will reach a bottom of €20 in the first weeks of 2025, rising towards €25 for the other fry varieties. How the further course will be (thus around mid-April 2025 and later in the storage season) will also become clear. The sentiment in the market of the end product will heavily influence this.
