Now that the main harvest is almost behind us, the bill can be made when it comes to the hectare yields and the quality of the potatoes. Besides the fact that the average hectare yield, especially in Belgium and the Netherlands, has turned out to be lower than expected in mid-September, the quality is currently also an issue.
For some farmers, the grapes are very sour, as they often have to deliver the potatoes earlier than planned after a costly growing season. In some cases, the intended destination (french fries factory) is only partially or not reached at all. The eventual loss can be guessed!
Compelling supply
The pressure on the market due to unplanned supply because of quality issues is currently not helping. As expected, the pressure will remain on the market for the time being. However, now that the harvest is over, a rising trend in the market is noticeable. The bottom price for french fry potatoes is currently at €15 per 100 kilograms for Fontane, rising to €23 (Reka quotation on Friday, November 29) for Innovator. Good quality potatoes are and will be demanded and paid for; after all, the return per kilogram of processed product is decisive.
As the cards are now dealt, an average price of french fry potatoes towards the contract price later in the storage season seems possible. The futures market quotation for April 2025 also shows this trend with a current rate of €27.50. Of course, other scenarios are also possible; the potato is indeed versatile.
If the sentiment falters later in the storage season due to the lagging processing figures resulting from reduced sales of the end product, will the potato market be pushed to higher price levels by developments in the fresh and export market? Already now, prices are being set in the segment outside the regular french fry market ranging from €23 per 100 kilograms for Jelly to €30 for Agria, destined for export to, among others, England (source: TransactieApp).
