Analysis Potatoes
Lack of larger German harvest in storage
German potato growers have harvested significantly more potatoes in 2024. However, this is not directly reflected in the stock figures, which are not at an excessively high level. Processors have been active in the first months of the season.
According to the statistical office Destatis, there were still 4 million tons of potatoes in German storage facilities as of the reference date of December 31. This is 300,000 tons more than a year ago, but it cannot be considered excessively high. In 2022, the stock was slightly higher. It is also 230,000 tons less than in the record year of 2017.
Lower Saxony
Almost half of this volume is stored in Lower Saxony, amounting to 1.9 million tons. This is 200,000 tons more than last year, but again less than in 2022 and 2017. North Rhine-Westphalia follows with 900,000 tons of potatoes, which is 400,000 tons more than a year ago. The stock figures mainly refer to fries and table potatoes.
It is not surprising that more potatoes are stored in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia, considering the yield figures also published by Destatis. The former state harvested 6.1 million tons of potatoes last year, which is 11% more than in 2023. North Rhine-Westphalia harvested 2.4 million tons, a 9% increase. Last month, it was announced that the statistical office had significantly revised the acreage figure, reducing it by 7,100 hectares to 282,200 hectares. A correction was particularly made in Lower Saxony.
Largest harvest in 20 years
Our neighbors to the east cultivated 6.6% more potatoes last year. With an average yield of 45 tons, the total harvest (all varieties) amounts to 12.7 million tons according to Destatis. If this turns out to be true, it would be the largest harvest in twenty years. This is significantly more than the 11.6 million tons harvested by growers in 2023. It is somewhat remarkable that this much larger harvest is hardly reflected in storage. Even if Destatis later makes a significant correction, the harvest remains unprecedentedly large.
With this in mind, one would expect German processors to have processed significantly more tons, but this is not evident. 12.5% less fries were produced in the current processing season until January 1. The additional potatoes must have mainly been exported to countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium or directed towards the table potato market and starch industry.
The larger harvest has not led to a downturn in the market. In 2017 (when 11.7 million tons were harvested), the market fell to a level of €4 on the free market. Currently, the Reka price has been on the rise since November and is even leading within the EU-4 in terms of price setting. Innovator is now listed at €40 per 100 kilos, which is €2.50 more than what PotatoNL notes, while Agria is €2 below the Dutch price level at €36. Fontane is at €30, a price also maintained by Belgium and France.
