Especially the Netherlands took a hit in the export of frozen fries, as shown by the latest export figures. France is rapidly becoming one of the key players in Europe in the field of potatoes and fries. This is reflected in the numbers.
Unfortunately, the export figures, originating from the harmonized trade system, lag a few months behind the actual practice. In August, the EU-5 (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, and Poland) exported over 508,000 tons of frozen fries. This is almost equal to the level in August 2023, but the smallest volume in five months. Over a twelve-month period, the export is now slightly 2% behind compared to a year earlier.
Good margins
Belgium, France, and Poland saw their exported volume increase in August, while the Netherlands and Germany both had to decrease by 15% in volume compared to a year earlier. It is noteworthy that processors are still able to raise the price per ton of fries, despite the fact that the cost price has not increased as much. Processors are thus able to achieve good margins.
With almost 253,000 tons, Belgium leads in August, which is 2.6% more than the same month in 2023. Over a twelve-month period, Belgian exports are slightly behind, but not by much. For the Netherlands - the second-largest - the situation is slightly different. The volume of 145,300 tons of fries has decreased by 17%, and over a whole year, the export is 8% lower.
This does not come as a big surprise. The processing figures already showed that 5% fewer potatoes were processed in our country in August, which is also reflected in the export of the end product. This is a trend in the longer term. Processing was below average in July and September as well. In October, there has been some change, and the volume is moving towards the multi-year average.
France the winner
Germany is the other loser in the fries market with an export that is almost 16% lower. Over a whole year, their export volume is 6% lower. The big winner, in percentage terms, is France. In terms of volume, the country ranks third with 60,500 tons, which is half more than was exported last year. Over twelve months, the French export volume is a fifth higher. This puts the country head and shoulders above the other four.
The reason for this is twofold: on the one hand, processing capacity has increased in the country. Especially now that the Clarebout factory in Dunkirk is running at full capacity for the first time. On the other hand, the country also delivers relatively cheap fries compared to competitors. It should be noted that borders are blurring in the potato world; a Belgian company is building a factory on French soil and processes potatoes grown in both countries.
Expensive fries
Although the Netherlands may lag in volume, with an average export price of €1,400 per ton in August, it sells relatively expensive fries. The price level has even increased by €84 per ton. Belgium remains the cheapest supplier at €1,267 per ton. France is slightly above that. The most expensive fries come from Germany, averaging €1,421 per ton. Compare those prices to two seasons ago: the average was €851 compared to €1,286 now. A rise of over 50%. This is clearly reflected in the financial figures of processors, which are very healthy.
Despite reports from processors that the export is slowing down, the figures do not fully support this yet. Yes, volumes have slightly decreased this summer, but they still have nothing to be ashamed of. Moreover, they are still able to increase product prices. Dutch companies are focusing more on higher-value products, which are mostly sold to the QSR segment (quick service restaurant). For Belgians, and partly for the French, it is more about large volumes of bulk fries for private labels, among others. This comes with a different price tag.
World stage
It is difficult to determine from the figures where the actual demand has decreased. There is more competition on the world market, from North America but to a lesser extent also South America and Asia. Initially, they meet their own market demand, but they are also exporting more. Compared to Europe, these are modest volumes, but they are growing. This is a market trend that European processors are closely monitoring and responding to. For example, by opening factories themselves in India, China, and the US, among others.
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