Analysis Potatoes
Potato price could exceed €20 before year end
Where in recent weeks the news was dominated by the lagging Belgapom quotation and the compelling supply of lesser batches, the European potato market seems to have quite a grip on the upward trend now.
For export potatoes and the popular fry varieties (such as Agria and Innovator), prices well above €20 per 100 kilos have been paid for weeks. Currently, there is buying interest in Innovator at prices between €23 and €25 for delivery before the end of the year. Agria is also performing strongly at the top end of the market, with prices even reaching €30 for very nice batches (peeling quality).
Fontane remains at the bottom of the market, with the forced supply mainly determining the price. However, the worst seems to be over. Belgapom quoted €15 this week. Nevertheless, there are also traders looking for Fontane for storage and offering significantly more.
Remarkable Price Trend
It is remarkable that the price trend of 2023 and 2024 is almost identical. The DCA Spot Price for Fry Potatoes (an average of the fry potato quotations in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and France) shows an almost identical line in both years. This is remarkable because the growing seasons are not comparable.
DCA Spotprice Potatoes
In 2023, we had an extremely wet autumn, causing part of the harvest not to be brought in. During the off-season in 2023, the price also dropped due to over-contracting and the late start of that season. However, the market started to rise from week 44, pushing prices above €20 by the end of the year.
Similar Movement
Looking at the chart of both years, you can see that they show a similar movement. However, 2024 started to deviate after week 46, especially due to the lack of an increase in the Belgapom quotation.
Meanwhile, we see prices rising in Germany, the Netherlands, and France. Even in Belgian trade, more is being paid than the current Belgapom quotation. If this trend continues, 2024 will quickly align with 2023 again, and the quotation will be above €20 by the end of the year.
