In the week before Christmas you would expect the processors to prepare for the planned stops that many factories have to deal with. However, the quotations show no sign of rest. This week, the DCA EU-4 Potato Index rose by 27% to the highest point of this season.
Now that the harvest is definitively behind the shelves and most problematic batches have been cleared, it seems that farmers no longer want to open their barns before the end of the year. Especially due to the rising trend in the market, you see that suppliers automatically become more passive, as waiting every week results in more money.
It is mainly Belgium that has thrown out the anchor of the market with Fontane. Apparently, the Belgian processors have their positions well sorted and do not need to be super active in the market. What helps is that Fontane is the largest variety and that the expansion of acreage in Germany, Belgium, and France is mainly based on Fontane. This makes it easier for the Belgian processors to stay put than for some Dutch processors.
Dynamic potato market
Especially the Dutch dynamics are remarkable. The demand for Innovator is turning the whole market upside down and driving up prices for other varieties. A Dutch processor is desperately looking for Innovator potatoes for its obligation to fast food chains. What doesn't help is that the acreage of Innovator has shrunk in the past year, partly because it is a difficult potato to grow.
In addition, the yield of Innovator is lower than average due to the extreme weather conditions of the past season. Yields of Innovator will therefore not reach their five-year average. Due to the low yield, there is also little freely saleable Innovator available. Innovator is therefore at the top end of the market with a price of €30-plus.
This shortage is also unlikely to be resolved as another variety cannot simply be used in fast food fries. The expectation is therefore that this variety will lead the market until the end of the season and also ensure that the lower end is pulled up to higher levels.
No shortage
Numerically, there should be no shortage of potatoes in the EU-4. Especially now that it appears that the sale of fries is stagnating, theoretically the end of the season should be reachable. However, due to the imbalance in the market of the different varieties, the sentiment will remain positive for the time being.
