Analysis Potatoes
European fry export shows clear decline
The export of frozen fries from Europe clearly needs to leave a gap, as shown by the most recent export data. For some time now, fry producers have been emphasizing that it is less easy to market their products globally. Prices also show a slight decline.
In total, the EU-5 exported 494,000 frozen fries during October. That is 3.3% less than a year earlier and 1.8% less than the previous month (9,145 tons less). The figures from the harmonized trade system become available with a few months delay. It is the first time since March last year that less than 500,000 tons of fries were exported by the five countries.
Belgium decreases
Belgium shows the strongest fluctuation in October. This country also had to give up the most, with a 15% decrease in exports compared to October 2023. In August and September, Belgian exports were picking up, but in one month, they decreased by 10.7%. This accounts for nearly 28,000 tons less product.
The Netherlands, on the other hand, exported more product, after losing a little ground in the previous months. The volume in October was 8,720 tons higher than that of September (+6%). Compared to a year ago, Dutch exports were 2.5% lower. France remains the only one of the EU-5 to perform very positively. The export was even 80% higher than last year, with nearly 64,000 tons of fries. This is all due to the brand-new Clarebout factory in Dunkirk, which is now running at full capacity.
UK saves the market
European exporters are fortunate that the neighboring United Kingdom significantly supported the market in October. 13% less product was sent there than in 2023. France, the second on the export list, actually took a third less product. Belgium is the biggest percentage gainer, importing more than double the volume. It is likely that these are fries produced in France - for and by Belgian companies - which are stored in Belgium for export.
Compared to a year ago, the average selling price per ton slightly decreased to €1,303 per ton. This is a reduction of 1.3% or €17. Exporters still manage to keep prices at a fairly high level. It is slightly lower than the 2023/24 season, but the difference is relatively small. Therefore, the decline in financial value is not very significant. Compared to a year ago, the export value is almost 5% lower. Belgium shows the biggest decline. France is the biggest gainer, but in terms of price per ton, it is actually the biggest dropper.
The rolling total over twelve months for the EU-5 in October was 6.05 million tons. That is 1.5% less than in the same period before, when 6.14 million tons were exported.
Trend is downward
Preliminary figures for November show that EU-27 exports have again decreased. Especially countries in the Middle East, South America, and Asia took fewer European fries. More product was exported to North America.
Fry producers in the Netherlands and Belgium expect this slight downward trend to continue in the coming months. This is also one of the main reasons why contract prices for the upcoming growing season hardly change. Fry buyers closely monitor cultivation and processing in Europe. With sufficient acreage, production, and processing, they have more choices. Therefore, they are hesitant to place orders.
Shrinkage at fast-food chains
The question is whether the consumption of fries is actually decreasing. Looking at the figures of globally operating fast-food chains, this is indeed the case. McDonald's reported a 1% decrease in sales during their last financial quarter. At fast-food company Yum, owner of brands like KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, the decline is even 4.5%. Popular fast-food chains are struggling with the continuously rising inflation, which prices their meals out of the market. Consequently, fewer people visit the so-called quick-service restaurants (QSR) and choose to fry at home or prepare other dishes. A clear increase in the volume of fries bought in supermarkets is not immediately visible.
What certainly plays a role in the EU-5 countries is the globally increased competition. A combination of factors has led countries all over the world to rapidly scale up their fry production. Disappointing harvests, significantly higher costs, and protectionist measures all contribute to this happening at a much faster pace than in the ten to fifteen years prior. Countries like the Netherlands and Belgium are heavily dependent on the world market. Factories here are concerned about this. This also applies to tariff walls, a favorite threat of, among others, President Trump.
Waiting
The European fry market is seeking a new balance. New factories have been built, lines added and optimized. The exact capacity remains guesswork. Companies do not reveal their cards. With consumers eating fewer fries and buyers being cautious, processors are biding their time. This does not mean they are idle; on the contrary. They remain positive for the medium term, as evidenced by the growth plans that still dominate. This is particularly the case in Northern France and Germany.
Niels van der Boom
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