Analysis Potatoes
Top harvest of potatoes still full of ifs and buts
Who goes by the explosion of the consumption potato area in the EU-4 (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and France), in combination with an average harvest, ends up with a top harvest. Yet that is a bit short-sighted. With at least six more weeks of growth to go, anything can happen.
It is crystal clear that European arable farmers have massively responded to the processors' wish to plant more potatoes. The area in the EU-4 has increased on paper this year to almost 550,000 hectares. An increase of 30,500 hectares, accounting for 6% more area than was planted in 2023.
In short
- The consumption potato area in the EU-4 rises to a record of 549,390 hectares (+5.9%)
- France and Germany account for three-quarters of this growth
- With an average harvest, this means 24.36 million tons of potatoes, with a range of 20.6 to 24.7 million tons
- It remains to be seen how many tons the factories can handle. The new ceiling has not been reached before
- Consolidation or shrinkage in the end product market (fries) means that buyers are taking it easy
Record area
This means the largest area in the European countries ever. It is 28,230 hectares more than the old record from 2020, or 5.4%. This upward movement is largely coming from Germany and France. In Belgium and certainly the Netherlands, arable farmers are taking it easy, simply because there is hardly any room for more potatoes.
France accounts for 44% of the expansion and Germany 31%. This amounts to 13,300 and 9,490 hectares. Belgium is estimated to expand by 5,211 hectares and the Netherlands by 2,500 hectares. These figures are based as much as possible on the data provided by the countries themselves. Belgium has only released figures for Flanders, and Germany only reports a total area. That's why we have made our own estimates here, based on historical patterns.
| Country | 2023 | 2024 | Difference in ha | Percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 75,484 | 78,000 | 2,516 | 3.3% |
| Belgium | 96,639 | 101,850 | 5,211 | 5.4% |
| Germany | 189,810 | 199,300 | 9,490 | 5.0% |
| France | 156,940 | 170,240 | 13,300 | 8.5% |
| Total | 518,873 | 549,390 | 30,517 | 5.9% |
Seed potatoes
It is exceptional that the cultivation has been able to increase so much this spring. For the additional 30,500 hectares, you are quickly talking about a volume of almost 70,000 tons of seed potatoes. And that in a very tight market. Part of the 'pain' for growers and insiders lies in where all those seed potatoes have come from. We know that the trading houses have been able to solve a significant part by cutting everything that could be cut. The sizes used have been stretched and alternative varieties have been planted. Everyone in the sector knows that in years of shortages, non-certified seed potatoes are also used.
Another question mark is the difference between theory and practice. The area figures are largely based on data for the CAP. When arable farmers made those at the beginning of the spring, the final situation was far from certain. Planting continued until the first week of July, and even then, not all fields were accessible. As a result, land remained fallow or another crop was possibly sown or planted. If this is significant, the final area figures at the end of this year should show a completely different picture. This plays out especially in (South) Netherlands and Belgium.
Record yields
What potato harvest can come from this record area? If you calculate with the five-year average of each individual country, you end up with 24.36 million tons of potatoes. This is also an absolute record and well above the previous record of 23.53 million tons from 2017. At that time, it caused a gloomy mood in the market, which lasted until the end of the season. However, the potato world of seven years ago should not be compared to today. The processing capacity has increased significantly. Also, more product is fixed on a fixed price contract. Yet the current price formation, with a total lack of demand from the industry, does not offer much hope. At the same time, the cards are shuffled differently for the storage season.
It is also a question here of how fair it is to calculate with a multi-year average. Especially in the last 3 years, the area has shown considerable fluctuations in Europe. If you extend that trend to five, ten, or even twenty years, this levels out and you see stabilization in that area. Something that growers likely experience very differently in practice.
Many uncertainties
Once again, it is the Netherlands and Belgium where the yield will turn out differently in practice. Below the major rivers, there are many fields with a story. What plays a role in all countries is the relatively large share of late-planted crops. The trial harvest figures across Europe show both above-average yields and disappointments with these late crops. They can still achieve a reasonable yield, but they must be able to grow undisturbed. In addition, there is the harvest risk to consider due to the later harvesting dates.
If we calculate with a yield like that achieved in 2018 or 2022 in the EU-4 (37.5 tons per hectare), you end up with a total volume of 20.6 million tons. If we assume the 45 tons/ha that was harvested last year, you end up with even 24.7 million tons. A significant range where the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle.
Unknown territory
With a volume of 24 million tons or more, the European potato sector is in unknown territory. Where is the balance between a healthy market and too much volume? Harvest year 2024 will have to show. In the last three years, we have seen a significant increase in both contract prices and production costs of potatoes, driven by strong demand for potatoes, soaring costs, and internal competition.
The 2024-2025 season could lead to stabilization of this situation. In addition, the fries market, which has shown significant growth in both volume and price for years, is also slowing down. This does not make processors worldwide nervous, but they are taking it easy. In the long term, the strategy is still focused on growth, but there may well be a pause for thought.
