With a changeable weather pattern this week, the compelling supply of early potatoes also seems to have decreased somewhat. Processors have needed 4 weeks to paly catch up with the late start, but now seem to be getting some breathing space.
After the holidays and the transition from the old to the new season, processing is now running at full capacity. The market and price have had to go deep without any extra demand resulting from it. The processor with the least coverage has benefited the most from the demand and supply mechanism not working. French fry prices have remained fairly stable, so processing potatoes that are well below cost and contract prices provide an extra margin for the industries.
The pressure seems to have eased off by now. Processors are buying potatoes again, and even the less obvious fry varieties are being picked up and processed. The Belgian industry paid €14 for nice batches at the beginning of the week, and Dutch processors are also no longer shying away from a batch of potatoes at €12.50 ex farm.
No bumper harvest in sight
The fact that they are no longer letting any potatoes go also has to do with getting a clearer picture of what to expect from the main harvest. Every week it becomes clearer that a bumper harvest is not in the cards. The hoped-for second growth also seems unlikely with the current figures. This means that the potato market is heading towards a volume comparable to or lower than in 2018 and 2023, with far fewer large potatoes available. The high number has resulted in fine size gradings this season. A wide variety of qualities also makes it a complex puzzle for processors.
Another notable point is that table and export potatoes have not really been affected by the price slump of fry potatoes. The demand for firm, nice export potatoes is good, and prices of €25 are not uncommon. Currently, €22 and more are being paid for good varieties for peeling as well.
The demand for storage potatoes for fries remains at a good price level, and deals for €30 or more are more the rule than the exception. This is also reflected in the futures market, which shows more of an upward trend at €30 than a downward one. The market is on the eve of the main harvest, and then reality will surface. That's when the potato market will reveal its true face.
