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Why potato trial harvest can be misleading

September 24, 2024 - Niels van der Boom

In Belgium, 36 plots of potato fields were sampled again in week 38. Compared to the previous moment, the crops have made a significant catch-up and therefore optimally benefited from the late summer weather with sufficient rainfall. However, the numbers can mislead you if you only look at averages.

On September 16 and 17, the Belgian organizations, including Fiwap, Viaverda, Carah, and Inagro, sampled the monitored plots again. In total, there are 36 plots, with 16 in Wallonia and 19 in Flanders. Challenger, Innovator, Bintje, and Markies are sampled once after desiccation. Fontane is sampled every two weeks.

Spread
On average, all plots reach 43 tons per hectare net (-15%) after 113 growth days. This is four tons less than the five-year average of 47 tons. The spread remains large. The lowest plots only reach 20 tons (after 82 days), while the top reaches 73 tons (at 146 growth days). In the size grading of 35 millimeters and above, Fontane reaches 41.9 tons in week 17 and 33.1 tons in the grading of 50 millimeters and above.

Most crops, especially those planted later, have shown an above-average growth of 600 kilograms per day. An increase of 250 to 300 kilograms is average. Even within plots, significant differences are visible, making it very difficult to create a single average for a plot. This can result in the final yield being different from what the numbers currently show.

Late plots
A yield that is 8.5% below the five-year average and 12% below last year is not dramatic - especially considering the exceptional season. However, this is a distorted picture, as evident in the breakdown by month. Potatoes planted in April (only a few plots) show a top yield that has not been achieved in the last five years. They have consistently scored above 50 tons throughout the season. The crops planted in May are also above average now, but it is the late-planted plots that are struggling.

Seven of these plots do not even reach a yield of 30 tons per hectare, and only 15% of the foliage has died off. The average is 39%. Several late plots do not even reach 60% in size. There is still potential in these plots, but the question is to what extent it can be utilized and whether the growers are willing to take the risk. Waiting to desiccate, and thus aiming for the last kilos, or maybe not desiccating at all. Even if you take the risk, Fontane in particular lags behind in weight and size.

Specific weight
The under water weight has remained the same at an average of 386 grams compared to the previous measurement. There is also variation here, although the weights are generally low. This can cause problems during harvest when a crop is not at its weight. Stabilization of the specific weight suggests that the plants are physiologically moving towards an end phase.

Aviko has also published figures for week 38 for the Netherlands. They report a yield of approximately 58 tons per hectare. Note that these are gross tons. Net weight is around 49 tons. This yield is higher than in the past two years. The size grading has leveled off around 75 percent. The under water weight has slightly decreased, towards 400 grams. This shows that potatoes in the Netherlands perform very differently from those in Belgium.

Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist in potatoes and other soft commodities at DCA Market Intelligence.
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