Rarely has it been so difficult to interpret the potato market at this time of year. Normally, you can make a list of the factors that set the tone for the coming weeks and months around this time. That list can be compiled. However, determining which direction the market is heading is almost impossible.
Of course, the optimists in the potato market say: the 'only way is up'. Consider this: the expected harvest, especially in the southern part of the Netherlands up to Belgium (especially Wallonia), is significantly lower than the multi-year average. This does not correspond to a price between €12 and €19 per 100 kilos, as seen this week in the EU-4 countries. This calls for a market that can rise later in the season to €30, looking at the futures market price of the April 2025 contract.
The leaders in the potato market are mainly Innovator, Agria, but also Markies. Other varieties like Fontane cannot be left behind. The positive-minded person also considers export opportunities, looking at countries like Switzerland (Innovator) and Spain (Agria) that are already present in the market today.
Less well-shuffled cards
The doubters (who do not necessarily have to be considered negative) acknowledge the disappointing potato harvest in a significant part of the Netherlands and Belgium, but point out that the potato harvest in Germany, especially, is fairly good. The same goes for France. Add to that the expansion of acreage in the mentioned countries, and the cards are less favorably shuffled. A price above €30 in the spring then becomes a challenging story. In this light, €20 to €25 is the best achievable.
Will fry sales become decisive?
An important factor for the sentiment and thus the direction of the potato market is the sales and price formation of the end product, fries. Market reports indicating a global decline in fry sales are becoming stronger. Competition in the world of not-so-transparent fry sales has only increased, which is only logical given the price increases of recent years. Insiders report that naturally all parties want to maintain the price of the end product, but this may not be sustainable for much longer. In fact, the price is under pressure. This could mean that fry processors will take a step back in the coming period. This will naturally have an impact on the sentiment and will not be beneficial.
First, get all the potatoes behind the shelves, that's the advice. The harvesting period is far from over. Many growers still break out in a sweat at the memory of last season. What seemed like a done deal turned out very differently then. Issues surrounding the harvest can quickly change the sentiment.
