After the more or less abrupt termination of Saxo as a clearing service provider of the potato futures market in the first half of 2023, trading almost came to a standstill. The service was taken over by ADM Investor Services, but transferring the necessary trading accounts has proven to be a time-consuming task.
The result was ultimately that the trade/volume and the associated open positions for the 2023 harvest year never fully developed. Also, the trade of the following season, that is, the 2024 harvest year (this season), just couldn't get started.
In addition to the fact that opening an account requires quite an effort, the interest in the potato futures market instrument is further declining, especially among growers. It is mainly the significantly higher contract prices that make growers feel more comfortable.
A futures market level of, for example, €30 no longer seems interesting enough. However, almost all potato growers know deep down that other years may come. Think of the further increase in European potato acreage, now and then a prosperous growing season, and perhaps a slightly less flourishing end product market.
What this will do to the sentiment in terms of pricing remains to be seen. The next question is what the consequence will be when it comes to forming the contract price. Today, the various interest groups must look beyond the immediate concerns when it comes to the issue of cost price and market developments. But in that sense, it's quiet, apparently things are going well.
In recent weeks, there has been some more activity in the futures market of the April 2025 contract. The 'strike' is currently at €29 where the trading takes place. And although the open position still doesn't amount to much, it has almost doubled in recent weeks on its way to five hundred contracts. Apparently, there are some shifts happening in the different positions, which is reflected in the trading volume of the futures market.
