Analysis Milk
US milk supply down, bird flu still rising
The American milk supply in July was slightly smaller than that of July 2023. Over the period from January to July 2024, milk supply in the United States remained clearly below last year's level. Additionally, there has been a notable revision for the milk supply of June. Meanwhile, the outbreak of the avian influenza virus remains concerning. The number of infected dairy herds has increased, but the effect on milk supply is unclear.
Milk supply in the United States remained below last year's level in July. With 8.24 million tons, production was 0.2% smaller in the 24 major states. The graph shows that this difference from last year is starting to decrease slightly. The five-year average for July is 8.25 million tons, with the supply in July 2024 slightly below that. July 2023, at 8.26 million tons, was just above the five-year average.
Total milk production from January to July 2024 amounted to 57.97 million tons in the 24 largest dairy states. In the same period of 2023, milk production was 58.12 million tons.
Production per cow is increasing. In the 24 major dairy states, the average production per cow was about 928.5 kilograms, approximately 0.91 kilograms above July 2023. The number of dairy cows decreased. In the 24 largest dairy states, this number decreased by 31,000 cows compared to last July, to a total of 8.88 million. However, the number of cows increased month on month. In July, there were 3,000 more dairy cows compared to June.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has also adjusted the June figures further downward by 62,140 tons, or 0.8% compared to the earlier expectation. This means that the milk production of June 2024 is ultimately 1.5% lower than June 2023. This made the milk supply in that month lower than previously thought. The reason why the milk supply was previously estimated higher is not entirely clear. Therefore, it is also uncertain whether we can expect a similar revision for July.
Bird flu update
It is unclear whether the revision of June is related to the prevailing bird flu in American dairy cattle. This is not immediately evident from the figures of the number of dairy cows, and the production per cow was also higher than last year. The number of dairy herds infected with the flu now stands at 191 across 13 states, as reported by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). In the last thirty days, most reported infections came from the state of Colorado with eighteen infected herds. Additionally, Texas, Idaho, South Dakota and Michigan reported new infections. Since the beginning of the outbreak, most reports have come from Colorado (64).
Four people have been infected through dairy cows. The number of infections through poultry has risen to ten. The New York Times reported critically yesterday on the virus, which, six months later, does not seem to be abating. Fundamental insights would be lacking, and there is a lot of uncertainty, also regarding the current measures.
Alex Jurvillier
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