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Russia ready to take over EU pork export to China

September 5, 2024 - Klaas van der Horst

Russia would like to take over the role of the European Union as an exporter of pork to China. That is an ambitious goal, as the country only started exporting in February of this year and hopes to export 50,000 to 60,000 tons of meat to China this year. This is only a fraction of the total Chinese import and also of the current EU share in it.

Russian sources know that in the first half of this year, China imported 510,000 tons of pork and about 600,000 tons of 'by-products'. This includes claws, tails, and ears, among other things. 51% of all this came from the EU, as Chinese data also shows. Within the EU, Spain is by far the largest exporter, accounting for 27.8% of all Chinese pork imports, followed by Denmark with 6.7% and the Netherlands with 6.1%. Brazil is the largest individual country of origin with 28.1% of the imports.

Russia in top 5 in half year
In June, Russia entered the top 5 of the largest foreign suppliers, partly due to Chinese trade sanctions against European pork. The Chinese market is an attractive destination for the Russians. The prices paid there are 30% to 40% higher than what they get for the meat in their own country, according to Yuri Kovalev, chairman of the Russian Union of pig farmers, in Russian media.

Due to African swine fever, which was also present in Russia, export to China was not possible for a long time, but an agreement was reached with the Chinese authorities in September last year, and the first exports started in February. Now that European pork exports to China have become part of a Chinese-European trade war over the import of electric cars, there are extra opportunities for the Russians, they feel. The first candidates for export to Russia are the big five in the Russian pork sector, conglomerates like Rosagro and Miratorg. Small players don't stand a chance.

Russian competitors
Russian pork companies are not greatly affected by Western sanctions. The feed for the pigs is produced domestically, and the breeding lines are now almost entirely in their own control. Competition comes mainly from countries like Brazil and the US. They continue to export vigorously, as even though the Chinese have a narrower wallet now than before the COVID-19 pandemic, pork is still high on the Chinese menu, and domestic production cannot keep up with the demand. Up to July, 3% fewer pigs were slaughtered in China itself because there was less supply.

For the Russians, it will still be quite a challenge to take over the entire European export, if it ever happens. The first goal now is to fill 10% of Chinese imports. It is expected to take three to four years for this to happen.

Klaas van der Horst

Klaas van der Horst is a senior market specialist in dairy at DCA Market Intelligence. He also closely monitors developments in politics and agricultural policy.
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