Analysis Pigs & Pork
Glimmer of hope for weak European pork export
Although the pork exports of the United States and Brazil remain strong, the European export is still weak in the first seven months of 2024. Especially from Asia, there is little interest in the European market. However, there is a small glimmer of hope on the horizon. While European export prices are falling, prices in the United States are rising. Meanwhile, the falling prices in Brazil are increasing competitive pressure.
Between January and July, the European Union exported approximately 2.64 million tons of pork. The difference compared to last year is not significant. However, last year's export volume was already considerably lower than in previous years. In 2022, the European Union exported 2.98 million tons of pork. Compared to that year, the export had decreased by 11.4%. The value of the export has not significantly changed compared to the first seven months of 2023. Compared to the same period in 2022, the export value decreased by 5% from €7.8 billion to €7.4 billion.
Although the European pork export may be stable, it is nothing to celebrate. 2023 was far from a good year for the European pork export. Asia continues to ignore the European pork market. Particularly, the export to China has decreased. In the first seven months of 2023, the European Union exported 661,000 tons to the Asian country. Two years earlier, the country exported 804,000 tons. That is a decrease of 23.6%.
Especially the export of frozen meat significantly decreased. In total, the export decreased by a whopping 53.2% from roughly 400,000 tons to 261,000 tons. The export of offal, however, performed much better and even increased by 2.9%. Compared to 2022, the export to South Korea and Japan decreased from 441,000 to 358,000. That is a decrease of a significant 23.2%. Yet, there is a small glimmer of hope in those countries. The export to South Korea and Japan increased by 7.1% compared to 2023.
Very strong American pork market
Contrary to the European Union, the American export is getting stronger month by month. In the first seven months of the year, the United States exported 1.75 million tons of pork, according to data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That is an increase of 4.1% compared to the previous year. In 2023, the United States exported 1.68 million tons.
Unlike Europe, the United States sees export prices clearly rising. The value of the export increased by 7% from $4.67 billion to $5.0 billion. This is a much stronger increase in prices than in export volumes. This is a favorable development for Europe, especially in combination with the falling prices in the European Union. This could be the beginning of a stronger European competitive position.
Moreover, both the growth of the export and the stronger growth of prices continue. The performance in the United States is getting stronger month by month. In July, the export increased by 24% compared to the same month in 2023, from 81,000 tons to over 100,000 tons. During that period, the value of the export increased by 29.1% from $189 million to $244 million.
Brazil on track for a record
Meanwhile, Brazil is on track to set an export record. Due to the strong performance in 2024, the Brazilian government expects the export to increase by about 7.7% to 1.33 million tons this year. Over the first seven months of 2024, Brazil exported 717,000 tons of pork, according to data from the Safras data bureau. That is an increase of 5.55% compared to the previous year. In the same period the year before, the export was 680,000 tons. Part of the strong results is due to the strong competitive position. Unlike that of the United States, the Brazilian export price is decreasing. The value of the export decreased by 4% compared to the previous year to $1.58 billion. For now, and in the future, Brazil's position in the world market remains the strongest.
