Analysis Chicken & Poultry
Brazil's chicken exports rise as EU declines
The global chicken meat export is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, as predicted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). In absolute numbers, the ministry expects trade to grow to 13.8 million tons. Additionally, the share of the Brazilian and Thai poultry meat market is growing, while the United States and the European Union are exporting relatively less.
According to the USDA, it is difficult to pinpoint one clear factor for the growth. The ministry states that the impact of animal diseases remains limited. In the United States and the European Union, there were some scattered issues, but overall, there wasn't too much of a problem. In Brazil and Thailand, the issues remain fairly limited.
Brazilian and Thai share growing
Additionally, the United States Department of Agriculture notes some shifts in the chicken meat market. The USDA expects the Brazilian share of exports to increase to 36% in 2025. In 2019, the share was 30%. Meanwhile, the share of the United States and the EU is decreasing. In 2019, the European Union's share was 17%. Additionally, Thailand's supply is also increasing. Between 2019 and 2021, the Asian country accounted for 7% of global chicken supply. In 2025, the USDA expects the share to rise to 9%.
Meanwhile, the share of exports from the United States and the European Union is decreasing. In 2025, according to the USDA, the EU's share of poultry meat exports will decrease to 13%. The American chicken meat export reached its peak in 2020; at that time, the United States was responsible for 26% of exports. In 2025, the percentage is expected to drop to 22% according to the USDA.
Growth continues everywhere
The lower share in global markets does not mean that the United States and the European Union are shrinking markets. All markets continue to grow, but Brazil and Thailand are growing much stronger than Europe and the United States. The USDA estimates that Brazilian exports will grow by 100,000 tons, while U.S. exports will increase by 40,000 tons.
Additionally, production for domestic consumption in the United States and the European Union is growing stronger. The percentage of production destined for export in the European Union is decreasing from 20% in 2019 to 16% in 2025. In the same period, the percentage destined for export is decreasing from 16% to 14%. Meanwhile, the percentage in both Brazil and Thailand increased from 29% to 33%.
