Analysis Pigs & Pork
British pig market stable, but weak
From recent data from the British agricultural organization AHBD, it appears that the British pig population has stabilized. However, there is still no sign of a structural recovery from last year's significant decline. The sow population did decrease. Meanwhile, imports from the European Union are slightly decreasing.
A recent count showed that the British pig population has slightly increased after last year's significant decline. In the first half of 2024, the number of pigs increased by 1.3% to 3.68 million pigs. This growth is driven by an increase in the number of fattening pigs. The total number of fattening pigs increased by 1.5%, or 51,000 pigs, to a total of 3.35 million fattening pigs. However, the pig population is still significantly below the peak level in 2021. Compared to that year, the United Kingdom has 600,000 fewer pigs.
It seems that the decline has been halted for now. However, a shrinking sow population indicates that the structural decline of the British pig sector has not been reversed yet. The latest British livestock census shows that the sow population is at its lowest level since these data have been recorded. In total, the sow population decreased by 2.2% to 251,000 pigs. For now, the situation does not seem to be improving. The number of young sows that cannot yet give birth also decreased by 5.3%. The increase in the number of fattening pigs despite the smaller sow population is attributed by the AHDB to a decrease in piglet mortality.
European import not increasing
For the European sector, the decline of the British livestock is not bad news. The United Kingdom imports a significant portion of its pork from the European Union, and this dependency remains for now. However, the increase in the number of slaughters in the first half of the year has led to a slight decrease in imports. In the first six months of 2024, the United Kingdom imported 427,000 tons of pork. The year before, it was 431,000 tons.
Especially in the long term, there is a significant decrease. Until 2018, the United Kingdom regularly imported around 500,000 tons in the first six months of the year. In 2023, the export was just under 84,500 tons. This is mainly due to the declining popularity of pork. In recent years, pork consumption has decreased and this trend has not been reversed. The AHDB's pork monitor shows that the British demand was 1.9% lower at the beginning of August compared to the previous year. This is largely due to a significant increase in consumer prices. The monitor shows that the consumer price of pork has increased by as much as 6.4% compared to the previous year.
Dutch export decreases the most
In relative terms, Dutch pork exports to the United Kingdom decreased the most. In the first half of 2024, the Netherlands exported over 77,000 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. In 2023, the export was just under 84,500 tons. Spain remains the largest exporter to the United Kingdom, according to data from the European Union's Eurostat data portal. In total, the Southern European country exported 171,000 tons of pork to the United Kingdom. This is a decrease of 5.5% compared to the first six months of the previous year. The total export in that year amounted to 181,000 tons.
Interestingly, despite the tight market, exports from Germany are decreasing much less. In the first half of 2024, imports decreased from about 63,500 tons in 2023 to 61,500 tons in 2024. This is a decrease of 3.3%. Danish exports are shrinking the least in proportion. In 2024, the country exported roughly 72,000 tons. The year before, Denmark exported 74,000 tons of pork to the United Kingdom. This is a decrease of 2.7%.
Matthijs Bremer
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